Now I find myself on the mountainside

Where the years went I can't say

I've been walkin' in my sleep 
Countin' troubles 'stead of countin' sheep 
Where the years went I can't say 
I just turned around and they've gone away 

I've been siftin' through the layers 
Of dusty books and faded papers 
They tell a story I used to know 
And it was one that happened so long ago 

It's gone away in yesterday 
Now I find myself on the mountainside 
Where the rivers change direction 
Across the Great Divide 

Global Strategist Michael Every explains:

“Hamas's staggering attack --which at time of writing had killed over 700 Israelis, injured over 2,000, left hundreds missing and seen 130 hostages taken into Gaza, including perhaps 20 dual-nationality American citizens, with several hundred dead in Gaza after Israel’s first response-- has potentially massive implications.

As Hamas supporters celebrated shocking Israeli suburbia and a dance festival for peace with Mad Max-style violence, Israel experienced its 9/11 or Pearl Harbour, first in terms of the intelligence failure, second in its determination to strike back hard. This is officially war for the first time since 1973, and Israeli PM Netanyahu has stated his intention to topple Hamas entirely.

Yet if Israel starts a ground war in Gaza to do so, Hezbollah in Lebanon says it will start an assault with its large stock of fighters and more dangerous missiles. Israel would find itself in a bloody two front war, three if Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq are activated. If an intifada were also seen in the West Bank, and from Israeli Arabs inside the 1967 Green Line, the country could find itself under “existential threat”, in the words of a former senior security official. That would only increase the severity of Israeli’s military response.

In turn, this could destabilise flailing Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt, the latter with an election in December: its pro-Palestinian population is already seething about high inflation, and two Israeli tourists were shot dead by an Egyptian policeman in Alexandria yesterday. The Suez Canal runs through Egypt, for those who think goods appear at the click of a digital button. Russia, neck-deep in Syria --where carpet-bombing of civilians in one pocket continues, and Turkish actions against Kurdish forces backed by the US in another-- would also be in the thick of things again, with the ability to destabilize things.

Yet there are other large risks. The Saudi-Israeli (anti-Iran) peace deal, and Riyadh boosting oil output in 2024 as a sweetener, is history for now. For those too naïve to join geopolitical dots, the Wall Street Journal claims ‘Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave the final go-ahead last Monday in Beirut’. On this basis one cannot rule out an Israeli attack on Tehran, opening the door to Iranian attacks on both Israel and Saudi Arabia, regardless of recent BRICS11 rictus-smiles.